Abstract
In this study, a fuzzy-Markov-based interval stochastic dynamic (FM-ISDP) analysis method is developed for reservoir operation
management (ROM). In ROM, uncertainties could be represented as discrete intervals, fuzzy sets, and fuzzy-stochastic forms.
FM-ISDP is framed on the integration of interval analysis, fuzzy vertex analysis, stochastic dynamic optimization approaches and
the fuzzy-Markov chain. The developed model is applied to a case of ROM within a multi-user, multi-uncertainty and multistage
context. The results indicate that reasonable solutions can be generated, helping the authority identify desired water release
policies and water allocation patterns. Besides, through comparing with the conventional interval stochastic dynamic method, the
results also interpret parameters’ vagueness is an imperative factor which has a significant effect on the total system benefit.